PV Financial Model: Reassessing the financial model review on your photovoltaic (PV) assets

Many things can be done to improve your solar asset performance and forecasting, including conducting a PV financial model review. When assessing the initial feasibility of a PV solar plant, you want to ensure your project is investment-worthy and has the capacity to grow sustainably. In order to assess this, a financial model review can be carried out, to work out cost assumptions and technical aspects of the project.

Problem

However, there have been several studies carried out that suggest the European solar industry has “turned a blind eye” to the realities of asset performance, with many facilities found to be underperforming compared to their initial production forecasts.

As the solar sector uses the same software tools, PVSyst, to generate production estimates, there is a lack of accepted standards. This means that forecasts can vary depending on who is completing in the model.

Previously, the initial estimates were conservative and projects typically overperformed compared to their expectations. However, with the pace of market development, new technologies, more complicated site designs and a more competitive landscape, production estimation has become more complex. Over time, this has lead to forecasting becoming overly optimistic.

On average, an underperformance 6.3% has been calculated in association with the incorrect technical and financial modelling of sites (PVtech magazine).

Solution

As for the solution, Greensolver offers the services as a technical advisor to review, reassess and update the estimated losses in the initial technical-financial model.

We can analyse and assess the main components installed on-site, such as the panels, protection settings, inverters, transformers, etc. We will look at the site design, layout of the site and where the components are situated and site surroundings. For older solar farms, we would look at the vegetation surrounding the site, which may have grown quicker than expectations, incurring greater performance losses.

After this review, we will assess the real performance of the asset since commissioning. From this, we can formulate a technical-financial model that incorporates these potential losses from real time data, on a case by case basis. Therefore, once the model has been reassessed, you should be left with far more accurate performance forecasts for your PV solar plant.

Example Issues

Some examples of potential issues we have had to revaluate, improve, and adapt are variables like:

•  PV Modules degradation (annual degradation/trend)
•  Light Induction degradation.
•  Real shadows on modules surface.
•  Environmental variables such as temperature, humidity,etc
• Portfolio effect on the P90
•  Weather database uncertainty
•  Implementation of twin-half-cut cell modules
• Improvement of the strings’ attribution to modules.
• AC ohmic losses: wire defined for individual inverters instead of global
• Added a loss for the HV line after the HV transfer up to the grid connexion
• Implemented Current loss per MPPT input
• Bifacial modules: ground albedo and reflected irradiation on the backside.
• Soiling loss.

How can Greensolver help?

Greensolver, as technical and financial advisors, as well as asset managers, are able to assist with your PV financial model review or other aspects of your solar project in a number of ways. As we have been in the industry, managing and monitoring assets for over 12 years, Greensolver have a unique understanding of the potential issues that can happen with an asset. With this knowledge, we are able to provide expert advice in an advisory, commercial and technical capacity.