Poland Renewable Energy Market: The Complete Guide

Whilst Poland has seen growth of renewable energy over the past decade, coal still dominates the power sector [1]. However, as demonstrated throughout this article, there are much more promising signs of big changes to the Polish renewable energy market in store…

According to the draft Energy Policy of Poland to 2040, the share of coal and lignite in electricity generation will be reduced from just under 80% in 2017 to less than 56% by 2030, and with increased prices of CO2 emission allowances, it may even fall to the level of 37.5% [2].

Renewable energy mix

The table below shows the total renewable energy (MW) in Poland . It shows the country has seen a great increase in renewable energy (RES), with a 24.7 % increase from 2011 -2020 [3].

The solar industry has seen a particularly rapid growth. At the beginning of 2014, the industry was practically non-existent, but, by the end of 2020, the country had almost 4GW of installed capacity. The last two years saw a significant growth, with the installed capacity doubling in 2019 , and then raising another 202 % in 2020 and this figure is only expected to grow further.

Unlike solar, onshore wind has had a strong presence in the Polish energy mix for over a decade. Following rapid growth in capacity till 2015 , onshore wind has experienced steady growth, reaching over 6GW in 2020.

Poland 2040 National Energy Policy

On the 2nd of February 2021, the Ministry of Climate and Environment of Poland officially announced the ratification of Energy Policy of Poland until 2040 (PEP2040). The Energy Policy of Poland (EPP) until 2040 is a response to the key challenges faced by the Polish energy sector and sets the strategic directions for the energy sector. This EPP is consistent with EU’s strategic documents [4].

Main points featured within the Policy are [5]:

• The rapid diversification and growth of energy generation from low-carbon sources, which will lead to more than a 50% reduction of CO2 emissions in the electricity sector by 2040.
• The decreased share of coal in electricity production to fall below 56% in 2030.
• The growth of RES share in gross final energy consumption to at least 23%.
• The growth of RES to 32% in electricity production in 2030, and in 2040 – 40%. The full realisation of off-shore wind and PV potential which can provide up to 30 GW of new power generation capacity in total by 2040.
• The construction of the first nuclear power plant planned for 2033 with a capacity of 1-1.6 GW. 6 nuclear units to be built by 2043 with a total capacity of ca. 6-9 GW.

2020 EU targets and expected growth

[6]

Forecast share of energy sources in gross power production in Poland from 2020 to 2040 [7] . This graph demonstrates that coal is forecasted to fall by 42 % from 2020 – 2040 , with renewables increasing by 18 % over this period .

[7]

Poland renewable energy market summary

Despite coal still dominating the energy market in Poland, over the next few years we should see a significant change in this. With promising figures for onshore wind, and particularly solar, Poland is a renewable energy market that is really set to boom.

For further information regarding the Polish renewable energy market, download our recently updated Poland Country Overview. It outlines the full energy mix, including plans and expectations for renewable sources, predictions, auctions and the key market drivers.

With this is mind, there really is no time like the present to join the movement and start to consider the possibilities of renewables in Poland. If you would like to talk to our experts in the Polish market, please contact us.